📋 复盘报告 竞彩口径规则独立EV回测-20260914.md
文件：
竞彩口径规则独立EV回测-20260914.md ｜ 位置：C:\qinglong\ticai\竞彩北单预测\reports\竞彩口径规则独立EV回测-20260914.md📄 报告内容
竞彩官方口径·规则级独立 EV 回测报告
生成时间: 2026-09-14 23:49
口径: 每触发 1 注·固定 1 单位·按触发时点竞彩官方赔率结算（独立下注模拟，非共享归因）
口径说明: EV 列沿用 rule_grader 口径（均赔×命中率−1）便于跨市场对照；多方向规则（双选/避主胜）该口径虚高，真实独立收益以「独立PnL」列为准（多方向等分注、按各自赔率结算）。
逐笔台账: jc_native_ev_ledger-20260914.csv
层: jingcai_2011_2017
| 规则 | 名称 | 触发 | 命中 | 命中率 | Wilson下限 | 均赔 | EV | 独立PnL | 方向 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ODD-3 | 冷门预警 | 14325 | 6242 | 43.6% | 42.8% | 4.99 | +1.176 | -1372.1 | draw,lose |
| WILL-15 | 让1球·一倍差双选 | 3204 | 2295 | 71.6% | 70.0% | 2.79 | +0.999 | -162.9 | draw,lose |
| L1 | 平+负核心规律 | 425 | 291 | 68.5% | 63.9% | 2.87 | +0.967 | -10.5 | draw,lose |
| O-1 | 平局超低水 | 358 | 138 | 38.6% | 33.7% | 2.86 | +0.103 | +36.6 | draw |
| L3a | 233组合 | 2551 | 772 | 30.3% | 28.5% | 3.32 | +0.004 | +9.2 | draw |
| L4 | 低赔段胜率 | 8471 | 4999 | 59.0% | 58.0% | 1.68 | -0.011 | -242.7 | win |
| EV-GOLDEN-DRAW | 平赔黄金区间 | 14033 | 3988 | 28.4% | 27.7% | 3.36 | -0.046 | -660.8 | draw |
| O-6 | 平负近水 | 63 | 0 | nan% | nan% | nan | +nan | +0.0 | 无方向 |
| G-1 | 分胜负格局 | 23 | 0 | nan% | nan% | nan | +nan | +0.0 | 无方向 |
层: jingcai_2026_recent
| 规则 | 名称 | 触发 | 命中 | 命中率 | Wilson下限 | 均赔 | EV | 独立PnL | 方向 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| L1 | 平+负核心规律 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 30.1% | 2.80 | +1.101 | +0.1 | draw,lose |
| L3b | 232组合 | 41 | 29 | 70.7% | 55.5% | 2.89 | +1.042 | -2.2 | win,draw |
| WILL-15 | 让1球·一倍差双选 | 562 | 412 | 73.3% | 69.5% | 2.73 | +1.004 | -41.9 | draw,lose |
| ODD-3 | 冷门预警 | 1423 | 508 | 35.7% | 33.2% | 5.37 | +0.916 | -366.7 | draw,lose |
| O-1 | 平局超低水 | 254 | 90 | 35.4% | 29.8% | 3.33 | +0.180 | -0.5 | draw |
| L4 | 低赔段胜率 | 1140 | 696 | 61.1% | 58.2% | 1.65 | +0.008 | -8.3 | win |
| EV-GOLDEN-DRAW | 平赔黄金区间 | 1113 | 305 | 27.4% | 24.9% | 3.35 | -0.081 | -89.6 | draw |
| L3a | 233组合 | 125 | 29 | 23.2% | 16.7% | 3.29 | -0.237 | -30.2 | draw |
| O-6 | 平负近水 | 12 | 0 | nan% | nan% | nan | +nan | +0.0 | 无方向 |
| O-7 | 排除平局 | 4 | 0 | nan% | nan% | nan | +nan | +0.0 | 无方向 |
| G-1 | 分胜负格局 | 33 | 0 | nan% | nan% | nan | +nan | +0.0 | 无方向 |
层: ttyingqiu_2018_2026
| 规则 | 名称 | 触发 | 命中 | 命中率 | Wilson下限 | 均赔 | EV | 独立PnL | 方向 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ODD-3 | 冷门预警 | 47330 | 18791 | 39.7% | 39.3% | 5.27 | +1.091 | -6544.4 | draw,lose |
| WILL-15 | 让1球·一倍差双选 | 15270 | 11212 | 73.4% | 72.7% | 2.76 | +1.029 | -582.9 | draw,lose |
| L1 | 平+负核心规律 | 1729 | 1162 | 67.2% | 65.0% | 2.83 | +0.899 | -97.4 | draw,lose |
| L3b | 232组合 | 155 | 95 | 61.3% | 53.4% | 2.87 | +0.759 | -21.4 | win,draw |
| O-1 | 平局超低水 | 9947 | 3389 | 34.1% | 33.1% | 2.92 | -0.005 | -338.7 | draw |
| L3a | 233组合 | 4585 | 1372 | 29.9% | 28.6% | 3.30 | -0.013 | -62.4 | draw |
| L4 | 低赔段胜率 | 29331 | 17561 | 59.9% | 59.3% | 1.64 | -0.016 | -945.0 | win |
| EV-GOLDEN-DRAW | 平赔黄金区间 | 32189 | 9123 | 28.3% | 27.9% | 3.35 | -0.050 | -1648.1 | draw |
| ODD-8 | 让球幅度修正 | 7156 | 0 | nan% | nan% | nan | +nan | +0.0 | 无方向 |
| O-2 | 平局高概率 | 1 | 0 | nan% | nan% | nan | +nan | +0.0 | 无方向 |
| O-6 | 平负近水 | 356 | 0 | nan% | nan% | nan | +nan | +0.0 | 无方向 |
| O-7 | 排除平局 | 31 | 0 | nan% | nan% | nan | +nan | +0.0 | 无方向 |
| G-1 | 分胜负格局 | 587 | 0 | nan% | nan% | nan | +nan | +0.0 | 无方向 |
层: okooo_movement_2026
| 规则 | 名称 | 触发 | 命中 | 命中率 | Wilson下限 | 均赔 | EV | 独立PnL | 方向 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WILL-15 | 让1球·一倍差双选 | 18 | 18 | 100.0% | 82.4% | 2.62 | +1.623 | +6.6 | draw,lose |
| ODD-3 | 冷门预警 | 32 | 15 | 46.9% | 30.9% | 4.95 | +1.322 | -0.5 | draw,lose |
| O-1 | 平局超低水 | 12 | 7 | 58.3% | 31.9% | 2.78 | +0.623 | +7.5 | draw |
| WILL-13 | 让1球·两档差无平 | 57 | 32 | 56.1% | 43.3% | 2.82 | +0.584 | -22.0 | win,lose |
| EV-GOLDEN-DRAW | 平赔黄金区间 | 16 | 7 | 43.8% | 23.1% | 3.37 | +0.472 | +7.7 | draw |
| L4 | 低赔段胜率 | 29 | 15 | 51.7% | 34.4% | 1.61 | -0.167 | -4.7 | win |
| N-1 | 深盘让球平衡 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 18.8% | 1.30 | -0.351 | -2.1 | win |
| L3a | 233组合 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.20 | -1.000 | -1.0 | draw |
| WILL-14 | 让1球·5对6平局 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.17 | -1.000 | -3.0 | draw |
| ODD-2 | 诱盘识别 | 22 | 0 | nan% | nan% | nan | +nan | +0.0 | 无方向 |
| ODD-8 | 让球幅度修正 | 5 | 0 | nan% | nan% | nan | +nan | +0.0 | 无方向 |
| L6_TIME | 变动时间可信度 | 86 | 0 | nan% | nan% | nan | +nan | +0.0 | 无方向 |
| G-1 | 分胜负格局 | 2 | 0 | nan% | nan% | nan | +nan | +0.0 | 无方向 |
层: ttyingqiu_movement_2024_2026
| 规则 | 名称 | 触发 | 命中 | 命中率 | Wilson下限 | 均赔 | EV | 独立PnL | 方向 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| G2D | 降盘降水真看衰 | 508 | 319 | 62.8% | 58.5% | 3.64 | +1.285 | -5.4 | draw,lose |
| WILL-15 | 让1球·一倍差双选 | 243 | 188 | 77.4% | 71.7% | 2.82 | +1.183 | -5.2 | draw,lose |
| ODD-3 | 冷门预警 | 1286 | 538 | 41.8% | 39.2% | 5.10 | +1.133 | -120.7 | draw,lose |
| O-1 | 平局超低水 | 10 | 6 | 60.0% | 31.3% | 2.85 | +0.707 | +6.9 | draw |
| G2B | 升盘升水诱上 | 870 | 264 | 30.3% | 27.4% | 4.83 | +0.466 | -42.0 | lose |
| G2A | 升盘降水真看好 | 975 | 433 | 44.4% | 41.3% | 2.71 | +0.203 | -100.3 | win |
| L5_DIR | 升阻降诱信号 | 383 | 122 | 31.9% | 27.4% | 3.67 | +0.171 | -78.0 | win |
| G2C | 降盘升水造势 | 781 | 374 | 47.9% | 44.4% | 2.40 | +0.151 | -55.2 | win |
| L3a | 233组合 | 45 | 15 | 33.3% | 21.4% | 3.32 | +0.107 | +4.8 | draw |
| L4 | 低赔段胜率 | 831 | 488 | 58.7% | 55.3% | 1.66 | -0.027 | -35.7 | win |
| EV-GOLDEN-DRAW | 平赔黄金区间 | 441 | 118 | 26.8% | 22.8% | 3.37 | -0.097 | -43.8 | draw |
| ODD-8 | 让球幅度修正 | 337 | 0 | nan% | nan% | nan | +nan | +0.0 | 无方向 |
| L6_TIME | 变动时间可信度 | 1920 | 0 | nan% | nan% | nan | +nan | +0.0 | 无方向 |
| G-1 | 分胜负格局 | 8 | 0 | nan% | nan% | nan | +nan | +0.0 | 无方向 |
与 football-data 口径对照（同规则双市场）
| 规则 | fd样本 | fd命中率 | fdEV | fd级 | 竞彩历史样本 | 竞彩命中率 | 竞彩EV | 结论 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WILL-15 | 15485 | 71.9% | 0.971 | B | 3204 | 71.6% | +0.999 | 双口径同向 |
| G2C | 16044 | 48.2% | 0.13 | B | 0 | nan% | +nan | 竞彩口径未触发/样本不足（G2 变盘组待快照时间维度积累） |
| G2A | 19485 | 46.8% | 0.188 | B | 0 | nan% | +nan | 竞彩口径未触发/样本不足（G2 变盘组待快照时间维度积累） |
| L1 | 1794 | 68.3% | 0.931 | C | 425 | 68.5% | +0.967 | 双口径同向 |
| L4 | 40515 | 57.5% | -0.0305 | C | 8471 | 59.0% | -0.011 | 双口径同向 |
| G2B | 21843 | 33.9% | 0.266 | C | 0 | nan% | +nan | 竞彩口径未触发/样本不足（G2 变盘组待快照时间维度积累） |
| G2D | 9620 | 56.1% | - | D | 0 | nan% | +nan | 竞彩口径未触发/样本不足（G2 变盘组待快照时间维度积累） |
| ODD-3 | 56396 | 42.4% | - | D | 14325 | 43.6% | +1.176 | 同向/一致 |
| L5_DIR | 9345 | 33.4% | 0.093 | D | 0 | nan% | +nan | 竞彩口径未触发/样本不足（G2 变盘组待快照时间维度积累） |
| L3a | 12156 | 29.0% | - | D | 2551 | 30.3% | +0.004 | 同向/一致 |
| EV-GOLDEN-DRAW | 64796 | 28.0% | - | D | 14033 | 28.4% | -0.046 | 同向/一致 |
| L3b | 770 | 62.2% | - | D | 0 | nan% | +nan | 竞彩口径未触发/样本不足（G2 变盘组待快照时间维度积累） |
各层独立 PnL 汇总（全部规则合计，固定 1 单位/触发）
- jingcai_2011_2017: 43367 注, PnL -2403.1 单位 (ROI -5.54%)
- jingcai_2026_recent: 4662 注, PnL -539.5 单位 (ROI -11.57%)
- okooo_movement_2026: 174 注, PnL -11.6 单位 (ROI -6.64%)
- ttyingqiu_2018_2026: 140536 注, PnL -10240.4 单位 (ROI -7.29%)
- ttyingqiu_movement_2024_2026: 6373 注, PnL -474.4 单位 (ROI -7.44%)